CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-09-23T05:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-09-23T05:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17810/-1
CME Note: CME SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and SW in COR2A. Source: 2.8 class flare in AR 2871 with location S22E28 and eruption seen in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 extending from AR 2871 NE and SW, with dimming and post-eruptive archades. The CME arrival at L1 is denoted by the increase in magnetic field (B total increase to above 10nT, magnetic field rotation (Bz stayed mostly positive, a clear flux rope is observed) and decrease in ion temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T23:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T09:10Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 428.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021] u_r = 278.004 Acceleration: 1.98387 Duration in seconds: 271377.28 Duration in days: 3.1409407 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.98 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 816.4 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/09/2021 Time: 09:10 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 59.00 hour(s)
Difference: 13.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-09-24T12:00Z
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